Two years ago or so, as words between Iranian and US presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and George W. Bush junior grew harsher, many of us feared a US invasion of Iran in the wake of the Iraqi war. It seemed a likely outcome at the time, with Bush accusing Iran of harbouring Iraqi insurgent leader Muqtada al-Sadr – and of weapon supplies to the Iraqi insurgents. Luckily our worst fears didn’t come to pass in 2006, not last year and – up until now, not this year, but we were pretty damned close to a major catastrophe – several times.
In March and April 2007 things didn’t look good at all, when the Iranian navy took 15 crew members of British warship HMS “Cornwall” into custody. Later on, in September, experts were convinced that US vice president Dick Cheney was ready to bomb Iran, based on suspicions of an Iranian nuclear programme. Behind it all there’s the constant chance of an Israeli attack, brought into light again this weekend, by former British foreign secretary David Owen – in The Sunday Times:
Some key decision makers in Israel fear that unless they attack Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in the next few months, while George W. Bush is still president, there will not be another period when they can rely on the United States as being anywhere near as supportive in the aftermath of a unilateral attack.
Nothing new therein, of course. There’s always been Israeli top officials in favour of an attack, but if Owen’s suspicions are founded by hard evidence, we’re looking at a conflict which is likely to make the war in Iraq seem like a walk in the park.
But I must add: When it comes to Iran, Israel and America, up until now there’s been much talk and no action. Let’s leave it like that, eh?
